CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-08-16T15:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-16T15:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21239/-1
CME Note: The source is likely an eruption associated with AR3078 (S24W12). The SDO 193/304/171 A imagery shows a brightening across all wavelengths and some ejecta leaving the active region. There appears to be a divergence in the ejecta noted in the 193 A imagery which a portion of the ejecta deflected to the west and a portion deflected to the south. A definite shock is observed at 2022-08-19T17:02Z with simultaneous, rapid increases in magnetic field intensity, particle speed, and particle density. There appears to be a sheath region followed by smooth rotations in the magnetic field components thereafter, especially for much of 2022-08-20.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-19T17:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-19T17:53Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.66667 - 5.33333
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: -20931.90 hour(s)
Difference: -0.85 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy